17 December 2024
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About the report
The National Construction Pipeline Report 2024 provides a projection of national building and construction activity for the six years from January 2024 to 31 December 2029. It includes national and regional breakdowns of actual and forecast residential building, non-residential building, and infrastructure activity.
The aim of the report is to provide awareness of the expected pipeline of work to coordinate construction procurement and support planning, investment in skills and capital equipment to meet the sector’s future needs.
Commissioned by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE), the report is jointly prepared by BRANZ and Pacifecon (NZ).
Summary of key findings
This year’s National Construction Pipeline Report 2024 forecasts a short-term decrease in building and construction activity throughout 2024 and into 2025, before a return to growth from 2026 onwards.
While total construction activity is expected to decrease from $60.8 billion in 2023 to $55.1 billion in 2025, activity is predicted to trend upwards from 2026 onwards to a total of $63.7 billion in 2029 as the residential sector recovers strength.
Intentions also remain high for non-residential activity, with commercial buildings dominating non-residential building work from December 2024.
Commercial buildings are expected to make up 46 percent of the non-residential projects and 48 per cent of the total value, with the private sector remaining the largest initiator of non-residential buildings in the coming years. This follows strong growth in non-residential building activity at the national level in 2023, up 9.9 percent from 2022.
A solid pipeline of transport, water and other infrastructure projects is also expected over the next two to three years, collectively peaking at $17.3 billion in 2025.
Other key findings include:
- New Zealand’s total construction activity increased by 0.1 percent in 2023 to $60.8 billion.
- Residential buildings contributed 54.1 percent of total construction activity in 2023.
- The report forecasts that residential building activity will decrease from $32.9 billion in 2023 to a low of $28.9 billion in 2025, before rising to $35.3 billion in late 2028.
- The forecast is for almost 200,000 new dwellings to be consented over the next six years at an average of over 34,000 dwellings a year.